Palpable tension
As war clouds gather, US intelligence is predicting coordinated attacks on embassies and other installations in the next few days. Joe Biden has promised retaliatory strikes, and has banned US diplomats in Israel from travel outside Tel Aviv. Lufthansa, one of the 2 western airlines still flying to Teheran, has suspended all flights. The Middle East is bracing for a widened Gaza war.
The immediate impact of an extended conflict is already visible. Possibilities of a West Asia conflict have pushed up crude oil prices beyond $90 a barrel. A few days ago Alireza Tangsiri, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) naval forces, said Iran could shut down the Hormuz Strait, though he said the option was not on the cards yet.
The Hormuz Strait is the choke point for oil as most of Saudi Arabia’s oil terminals are located on that coastline. As many as 85-100 oil tankers pass on a daily basis through the Strait. In terms of percentage the Middle East’s OPEC members account for 67 percent or over 1,000 billion barrels of the world’s proven oil reserves. If Iran was to ever carry out such a threat, there will be a firefight to keep the oil trade lines open by the Western powers.
In the theatre of Eastern Europe, the Ukraine war grinds on without an end in sight. A few weeks ago, Vladimir Putin, after his ‘election victory’ alluded to the possibility of a World War III. Iranian foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, has been jetting to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Turkey to try and reach a Middle-East consensus against Israel.
The tension is palpable, and even a small spark can set off a galloping conflagration. The UK, Germany and others are scrambling to plead with Iran to observe restraint; but possibly their efforts would be served if they were directed to Israel and its ally, the US, to convince them to address the root of the problem: ending the invasion of Gaza.